Bill Gates, the co-founder of Microsoft, warned that rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI) could bring the greatest upheaval in human history over the next 20 years. He predicted that society as a whole would undergo major changes as AI surpasses human intellectual abilities and even replaces physical labor.
According to Britain’s The Observer on October 25, Gates described the emergence of AI in a recent interview as an event comparable to the evolution of humanity. “AI is an evolutionary event,” he said, explaining that it represents a fundamental change, like the evolution from apes to humans.
Gates predicted that advances in AI would mean humans are no longer the most intelligent beings on Earth. He said mathematicians would enjoy a golden age with AI’s help for about the next five years, but predicted that within 20 years, AI would surpass humans in fields such as mathematics, biology and engineering design.
He acknowledged that his own programming skills had already fallen behind AI. “Late last year, I realized that my coding skills, which I had been immersed in since I was 13, had effectively become useless,” he said, explaining that the era when humans could be the world’s best programmers had passed.
He also expressed concern about AI’s impact on the labor market. Gates predicted that AI would replace not only jobs in invention and office work, but also human physical labor through humanoid robots. As technological advances reduce the role of humans in most occupations, job losses could become a serious social problem.
In an episode of the technology publication The Verge’s podcast “Decoder,” released on October 22, he also warned that AI would ultimately usher in an era of abundance, but that the transition would bring considerable upheaval.
“What concerns me most is a 20-year transition in which there will be winners and losers and a lot of disruption,” Gates said, adding that changes driven by AI could bring about one of the most turbulent periods in human history.
He predicted that if humanoid robots are deployed in a range of fields, including home construction, food production and surgery, human labor will no longer be needed to produce most goods and services.
He also proposed leaving some occupations as uniquely human. He said society could decide that people should continue to be responsible for fields such as art, sports, cooking and childcare, even if AI demonstrates abilities superior to those of humans.
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Gates also emphasized the potential for AI to create abundance. However, he noted that policy measures must be prepared to address job losses and social upheaval if people are to benefit from technological advances.
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