Re-employment may not eliminate the underlying risk. Nearly three-quarters of recently displaced workers in Goldman’s highest AI-risk group moved into occupations with similar or greater AI exposure.
Artificial intelligence is beginning to leave a measurable imprint on US employment, but the real economic risk may lie beyond the initial job losses. Goldman Sachs research finds that workers in AI-exposed occupations face longer unemployment, weaker subsequent earnings and a troubling tendency to move into jobs that remain vulnerable to automation. The next recession could turn a gradual adjustment into a much more disruptive labour-market shock.
Takeaways by Dark Side of the Boom™
• Goldman finds that workers most likely displaced by AI take approximately one month longer to find employment and are roughly 10 percentage points more likely to remain unemployed a year after losing their jobs.
• The financial damage can persist for years. Historical technological displacement has produced lasting real earnings losses, especially among older, less-educated and longer-tenured workers.
• Re-employment may not eliminate the underlying risk. Nearly three-quarters of recently displaced workers in Goldman’s highest AI-risk group moved into occupations with similar or greater AI exposure.
• The next economic downturn could accelerate automation-related job losses. Goldman warns that technological displacement has historically been concentrated around recessions, precisely when displaced workers face the greatest difficulty finding alternatives.