A hike acts first on short-dated rates. The 2-year Treasury yield, the maturity most sensitive to expected Fed policy, rose to 4.51% on Nov. 6 from 4.46% the day before, according to Treasury’s daily par yield curve, while the 10-year moved to 4.86% from 4.84% [4]. 24/7 Wall St. attributed the larger move at the short end to a revised view of near-term policy [1].
Long-duration growth stocks, including most AI names, are valued on profits expected years out, so their valuations are usually most exposed to long-term yields. Those yields have fallen. The 10-year peaked at 5.31% on Oct. 5 and the 30-year at 5.66%; by Nov. 6 they were 4.86% and 5.26% [4]. The gap between 2-year and 10-year yields narrowed from 47 basis points to 35 over the same span, MLQ calculated from Treasury data [4]. Reuters reported that traders had pared December hike bets earlier in the week on concern that an AI slowdown could cool growth [2].
Bank of America strategists led by Michael Hartnett argued on Oct. 30 that higher yields were already hurting the AI rally as bond markets rein in hyperscaler capital spending, Investing.com reported, calling the tech stall “classic painful tightening stuff but not mortal unless job losses/credit event” [8]. They listed an end to rate hikes among the things risk assets need in the first half of 2027 [8].
2-year and 10-year Treasury par yields, Fridays, Sept.-Nov. 2026
2-year10-year
4.25%4.5%4.75%5%5.25%5.5%Sep 4Sep 11Sep 18Sep 25Oct 2Oct 9Oct 16Oct 23Oct 30Nov 6Sep 4 · 2-year: 4.37%Sep 11 · 2-year: 4.63%Sep 18 · 2-year: 4.76%Sep 25 · 2-year: 4.81%Oct 2 · 2-year: 4.83%Oct 9 · 2-year: 4.8%Oct 16 · 2-year: 4.74%Oct 23 · 2-year: 4.69%Oct 30 · 2-year: 4.56%Nov 6 · 2-year: 4.51%4.51%Sep 4 · 10-year: 4.78%Sep 11 · 10-year: 4.96%Sep 18 · 10-year: 5.01%Sep 25 · 10-year: 5.17%Oct 2 · 10-year: 5.28%Oct 9 · 10-year: 5.24%Oct 16 · 10-year: 5.09%Oct 23 · 10-year: 5%Oct 30 · 10-year: 4.94%Nov 6 · 10-year: 4.86%4.86%
Source: U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve rates, Friday closes. The 10-year’s intraperiod high was 5.31% on Oct. 5.
Chart data
| 2-year | 10-year | |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 4 | 4.37% | 4.78% |
| Sep 11 | 4.63% | 4.96% |
| Sep 18 | 4.76% | 5.01% |
| Sep 25 | 4.81% | 5.17% |
| Oct 2 | 4.83% | 5.28% |
| Oct 9 | 4.8% | 5.24% |
| Oct 16 | 4.74% | 5.09% |
| Oct 23 | 4.69% | 5% |
| Oct 30 | 4.56% | 4.94% |
| Nov 6 | 4.51% | 4.86% |