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With registration fees soaring to $215 and economic and political factors at play, will H-1B visa applications surge or decline in the upcoming cycle?
As the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) prepares for the fiscal year 2026 H-1B cap registration, several factors are likely to influence application numbers and employer participation. This year’s registration period will open on March 7, 2025, and close on March 24, 2025. Significantly, there is a drastic increase in the registration fee, from just $10 in previous years to $215 per registration.
For the 2025 H-1B cap registration, USCIS received 470,342 applications. While it is possible that filings for 2026 will remain at similar levels, a slight decline cannot be ruled out due to a combination of economic, political, and technological factors. Here are key reasons why the number of registrations may either decline or increase this year.
Potential reasons for a decline in H-1B registrations
1) The end of DEI initiatives under the Trump administration
The Trump administration has recently moved to eliminate all Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives. Many small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), including those owned by individuals of Indian origin, have benefited from DEI-driven programs that provided funding, contracts, and support for minority- and women-owned businesses. The removal of these initiatives may reduce employment opportunities at these businesses, leading to a decrease in H-1B sponsorship from this sector.
RELATED: FY 2026 H-1B cap initial registration opens on March 7 (February 6, 2025)
2) Government spending cuts and their impact on tech hiring
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is focused on reducing spending, which could result in the cancellation or renegotiation of several federal projects and contracts. Many technology firms rely on government projects for employment opportunities, and if these projects are scaled back, the demand for technology personnel — especially those requiring H-1B visas — could decline. This could have a ripple effect on both large IT firms and smaller contractors dependent on federal contracts.
3) Potential trade wars, inflation, and economic uncertainty
The United States is currently navigating uncertain economic terrain, with rising concerns over tariffs, trade disputes, and inflation. Should a trade war escalate, companies may be forced to cut costs, leading to hiring freezes or reductions. Many H-1B employers, particularly those in the tech sector, may adopt a more cautious approach to hiring foreign workers due to concerns about an economic downturn or recession.
4) The growing impact of AI on the workforce
Artificial Intelligence (AI) continues to reshape the job market, automating tasks that were previously performed by humans. Some employers are increasingly turning to AI-driven solutions, reducing the need for certain technical roles that have traditionally been filled by H-1B workers. While AI also creates new job opportunities, the transition period could result in reduced demand for H-1B talent in certain areas, particularly in roles that involve repetitive or data-heavy tasks.
5) Increase in registration fees
The most immediate and tangible deterrent for employers is the sharp increase in the H-1B registration fee. In previous years, employers paid only $10 per registration, which made submitting multiple applications for different candidates financially manageable. However, with the new fee set at $215 per registration, smaller employers may reconsider their hiring strategies, opting to sponsor fewer candidates due to higher upfront costs. This change may also impact larger corporations that file thousands of applications each year as part of their recruitment strategy.
Factors that could drive higher H-1B registrations:
Despite these potential setbacks, there are also several reasons why H-1B registrations could remain steady or even increase this year:
1) Growth in AI and emerging technologies
While AI may eliminate some jobs, it is also fueling the demand for new roles in AI development, machine learning, and data science. Companies investing in AI-driven solutions may require highly specialized talent, many of whom come from international talent pools. As AI-related fields continue to grow, the demand for H-1B visa holders with expertise in these areas could counteract the potential decrease in traditional IT roles. However, this depends on the amount of investment companies are willing to make in AI.
2) Fear of future restrictions on the H-1B program
There is growing concern among businesses that the U.S. government may introduce stricter regulations on the H-1B program in the coming years. Some policymakers have proposed tightening eligibility criteria or reducing the overall cap. Employers who anticipate such changes may choose to file more applications this year to secure talent before any new restrictions take effect. This sense of urgency could lead to an uptick in registrations as businesses attempt to lock in their hiring needs while the program remains unchanged.
READ: H-1B visa debate intensifies amid China’s DeepSeek AI advancements (January 31, 2025)
With the H-1B cap registration window set to open in March 2025, employers will need to weigh these competing factors carefully. While the rise in registration fees, government spending cuts, and economic uncertainty may dampen enthusiasm for H-1B filings, the continued expansion of AI-driven industries and concerns over potential future restrictions could sustain or even boost application numbers.
Ultimately, the 2026 H-1B registration cycle will serve as a key indicator of how external economic and political factors influence employer demand for skilled foreign workers. Whether registrations remain steady or experience a slight decline, businesses will need to adapt to an evolving landscape where the costs and complexities of the H-1B process continue to change. The coming months will be crucial in determining how these factors play out in the labor market and whether foreign talent will continue to play a significant role in shaping the future of the U.S. workforce.