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Prominent economist Nouriel Roubini likes to make bold predictions. Known as “Dr Doom,” Roubini recently claimed that the AI revolution would lead to an enormous increase in wealth and a massive drop in consumer prices, but job losses that could be as high as 80% in many sectors.
To maintain economic activity and prevent widespread social unrest, Roubini predicts that governments will introduce universal basic incomes (UBI), unconditional payments that would replace social security, unemployment compensation and other social benefits. AI will be taxed to cover part of the cost.Â
Roubini’s timeline for the end of most work – 20 years – is optimistic, but AI will ultimately eliminate the need for most work as we know it. People will instead look for purpose-driven lifestyles. The wellness industry, which caters to mental, spiritual and physical human health, could be the primary beneficiary.
Amara’s law
In the 1970s, American researcher and futurist Roy Amara made his famous statement about technological adaption that came to be known as Amara’s law: “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”
AI is a case in point. Invented in the 1960s, scientists predicted AI would outperform humans in all domains of knowledge by the 1980s. They were off the mark by well over half a century. Experts now predict that AI will exceed human capabilities in most domains by 2030.
On the other hand, current developments show that AI, in combination with large-scale automation and robotics, is bringing us closer to Roubini’s prediction: The end of nearly all work that relies on routine, repetitive tasks. Developments in East Asia, and especially China, give a glimpse of the future.
The number of industrial robots in China is approaching two million, more than half of the global total. Moreover, Chinese producers have developed AI-controlled robots for a wide variety of tasks – from planting trees, harvesting crops and installing and cleaning solar panels.
Chinese producers of electronics, batteries, solar panels, and container and warehousing companies have reached automation levels of over 90%. China’s latest electric vehicle (EV) factories have the capacity to turn out a car every 30 seconds.
Chinese EV maker BYD recently deployed 500 multitasking humanoid robots that can handle everything from sorting parts and using electric screwdrivers to conducting visual quality inspections.
Human labor is becoming an ever smaller part of the production processes and supply chains.
AI taking over AI
AI’s impact will go far beyond optimizing production and logistics. The latest advances in the development of Large Language Models (LLM) like ChatGPT and China’s DeepSeek suggest that few jobs will be safe.
LLMs can generate articles, write technical documentation, review contracts, analyze medical images and automate software testing. Facebook’s founder, Mark Zuckerberg, told an interviewer last month that his company could begin replacing software engineers with AI as early as this year.
AI will be doing the work of mid-level engineers this year, said Zuckerberg, adding, “We’ll get to the point where a lot of the code in our apps and the AI that we generate is actually going to be built by AI engineers instead of people engineers.”
Abundance
Roubini subscribes to the thesis of futurist Peter Diamantis, co-author of the bestselling book “Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think.” According to Diamantis, “We will soon be able to meet and exceed the basic needs of every man, woman and child on the planet. Abundance for all is within our grasp.”
Like Roubini, Diamantis believes that AI, robotics and other technologies will be able to produce consumer goods in virtually unlimited quantities, and at ever-decreasing cost. The resulting deflationary effect will lead to a lower cost of living for consumers, but the challenge will be to keep up demand, which requires addressing wealth inequality.
Wealth inequality in many countries, already at historic levels, will only increase unless mitigating measures are taken. Hence the growing calls for guaranteed universal basic income (UBI), which Roubini argues can be financed through the enormous increase in wealth that will be generated by AI.
Aware of the potential social-economic impact of AI in the coming years, prominent tech industry leaders, including Elon Musk, Sam Altman of OpenAI, and Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey, have voiced support for a UBI. Google, Apple and Cisco have even donated money to UBI pilot projects.
A study by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) pointed out that timing is the key to the launch of a UBI. If introduced too early, it could impact a country’s competitive strength.
Moreover, the implementation of a UBI would have to be part of a general overhaul of the existing social safety net and the tax system.
Wellness for all
Whether it comes sooner or later, a world without work will be a milestone in human history.
In the 20th century, machines reduced the economic value of our physical power. In the 21st century, AI will reduce the economic value of our professional knowledge, be it accountants, architects, or attorneys.
For most people, their identity is closely tied to their job or professional skills. Work has largely defined our social status and offers the satisfaction of accomplishment.
Deprived of the security of work and its accompanying status, people will seek new values and a new purpose-driven lifestyle. The wellness industry, catering to mental, spiritual and physical improvement, could be one of the primary beneficiaries.
The wellness industry can help to mitigate the social and psychological impact of a world without work. It offers everything from community-based wellness experiences to group therapy, mindfulness training, and courses on integral thinking and resensitizing ourselves to nature.Â
The wellness industry, which emerged in the 1970s, is expected to grow between 9% and 12.5% in the next decade, outpacing the overall economy. AI could also disrupt the wellness industry, but work that requires human compassion will be largely insulated from the job losses caused by the AI revolution.
East Asia has demographic reasons to make haste with the AI revolution. In Japan, the median age is 49 years and rising. In 20 years, the dependency ratio between non-working and working people will approach 1 to 1. China and South Korea have similar demographic numbers.
Despite being the “oldest” region in the world, East Asia could become a trendsetter in the post-work era. The region makes most of the hardware needed for Industry 4.0 and is not burdened by existential questions about AI. Moreover, China is integrating AI education into its primary and secondary school curricula.
In December last year, China’s Ministry of Education issued guidelines specifying that younger primary school students should focus on exploring and experiencing AI technologies, while older primary and middle school students are expected to understand and apply AI concepts.