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Debates around the jobs impact of AI on industries are no longer confined to niche circles, with software development often at the forefront.
The launch of ChatGPT by OpenAI catapulted AI into the mainstream, offering millions of users an accessible way to interact with a natural language processing tool capable of human-like conversations. Its release marked a turning point for large language models (LLMs) and their transformative potential across numerous fields, including software development.
As AI technologies such as generative AI (GenAI) advance by leaps and bounds, the question of their impact on employment remains pressing. A recent report by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) draws upon historical trends to shed light on AI’s implications for software developers and related occupations, providing reassurance amid uncertainty.
Adapting historical data to understand the likely impact of AI on jobs
The BLS uses its Employment Projections (EP) programme to measure labour market changes brought about by technology. By analysing historical data, the agency identifies structural shifts and projects future employment trends. While rapid technological adoption has caused job displacement in the past, this has often occurred over extended periods, allowing time for industries and workers to adapt.
The BLS acknowledges that, while each new technology carries inherent uncertainties, patterns tend to emerge as the technology matures. For example, the advent of digital cameras in the early 2000s led to a significant decline in demand for photographic process workers. Anticipating this shift, the BLS projected a 23.6% decline in employment between 2004 and 2014 for the occupation, which eventually fell even further—from 86,300 in 2004 to just 9,200 by 2023.
On the other hand, concerns about autonomous vehicles disrupting lorry drivers’ employment during the 2010s prompted no immediate adjustment in employment projections. By recognising the need for regulatory approval and public safety assurances, the BLS judged that widespread adoption of self-driving vehicles would not materialise quickly. This assessment has proven accurate thus far, as employment for heavy and tractor-trailer drivers grew from 1.7 million in 2012 to over 2.2 million by 2023, despite fears of automation.
In the case of AI, its relatively nascent state and the lack of robust historical data make predictions trickier. Factors such as developmental hurdles, regulatory constraints, cost considerations, and the pace of adoption all contribute to uncertainty. Moreover, industries are still exploring how best to integrate AI tools into workflows, especially within tasks that require human ingenuity.
The role of AI in software development
The software development profession stands as a key example of AI’s potential impact on employment. Far from displacing developers, generative AI tools are anticipated to complement their work—enhancing productivity and opening pathways to new opportunities.
LLMs, for example, are adept at streamlining tasks like coding, testing, documentation, and improving data quality. Rather than replacing human developers, these tools enable them to focus on higher-value tasks while automating more routine aspects of the job.
As the BLS report notes: “Software developers can use GenAI to develop, test, and document code; improve data quality; and build user stories that articulate how a software feature will provide value.”
Greater productivity due to AI may lower the overall cost of software products, potentially increasing their demand. Furthermore, the AI revolution itself is poised to spur new employment opportunities for developers tasked with creating AI solutions and maintaining complex systems.
According to the BLS, “robust software needs are expected to support continued demand” for developers, with the employment of software developers projected to grow by 17.9% between 2023 and 2033—well above the average growth rate of 4.0% for all occupations.
Database administrators and architects: Challenges and opportunities
AI’s influence extends beyond software developers to other computer-related roles, such as database administrators (DBAs) and database architects. The ongoing expansion of data volumes is driving an increased demand for professionals who can maintain data infrastructure and ensure its security. Cloud computing, data analytics, and GenAI integration are just some of the areas where DBAs and architects are finding relevance.
However, these roles are not immune to AI-driven changes. Tools leveraging GenAI are already capable of performing tasks like generating code, predictive analysis, and system integration—areas traditionally handled by DBAs. As more businesses adopt these tools, roles are expected to evolve rather than vanish, with an emphasis on navigating the complexities of integrating AI into datasets and workflows.
Strong market demand for database solutions is projected to outweigh any productivity boosts from AI tools. Employment for database administrators is expected to grow by 8.2%, while database architects are projected to experience a 10.8% increase over the 2023–33 period.
Cautious optimism about the impact of AI on jobs
The BLS emphasises the need for caution when interpreting projections about AI’s impact, noting that new data and developmental breakthroughs are continually emerging. Factors such as regulatory approval and organisational readiness for adopting AI solutions will significantly influence the timeframe and scale of these changes.
For workers in software development and related roles, AI presents more of an opportunity than a threat. The technology is unlikely to replace human programmers but instead serves as an ally capable of enhancing creativity and productivity. As businesses rely on developers to deliver solutions powered by AI, professionals with expertise in the field stand to benefit from a dynamic job market in the years ahead.
The adaptability of software developers and their ability to embrace and integrate AI technologies into operations will likely determine the long-term trajectory of their profession.
For now, projections about the impact of AI on jobs offer a reassuring perspective: far from making human developers obsolete, AI is set to augment their capabilities, fostering demand for those who can operate at the intersection of technology and innovation.
See also: Solving the data crisis in generative AI: Tackling the LLM brain drain
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