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Developers worried about their careers in the age of AI might be able to relax a little after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) predicted employers will hire another 300,000 coders by 2033.
The Bureau’s predictions came in its annual ten-year forecast that considers the impact of new technologies on future employment and economic trends in the USA.
The projections cover the years 2023–33, years during which BLS believes “AI is expected to primarily affect occupations whose core tasks can be most easily replicated by GenAI in its current form.”
The number of customer service representatives is therefore predicted to drop by five percent over the decade.
The news is better for developers as the study finds that AI can improve developer productivity by helping to test and document code; improve data quality; and “build user stories that articulate how a software feature will provide value”.
By taking over such tasks, the BSL thinks AI could lower the cost of developing code and boost uptake of software products.
Although “it is always possible that AI-induced productivity improvements will outweigh continued labor demand,” the researchers expect developer employment to increase 17.9 percent during the forecast period and by 2033 the US will be home to almost two million developers, up from the 1.7 million employed today.
The BLS also has good news for database architects and administrators (DBAs), who it feels will benefit from more automation and be expected to embrace it.
Database pros will also benefit from growing demand for cloud computing and data infrastructure, which will require fresh deployments of data infrastructure. Employment of DBAs is therefore projected to grow 8.2 percent, while for database architects it is expected to be 10.8 percent. Both figures are higher than the four percent average employment growth predicted across all occupations. Database-related jobs will, however, remain a niche: BLS says there’s 141,000 in the field now, growing to 155,00 over ten years.
Electrical and electronic engineering occupations may be “even more insulated from any employment impacts” of Ai, thanks to increased demand for electronics, infrastructure modernization to updates to the power grid, electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing, and other activities in industries that rely on electrical systems.
Employment of electrical and electronic engineers is projected to jump 9.1 percent, while for technicians it is 3 percent, and computer hardware engineers 7.2 percent.
The BLS predictions contrast with other forecasts that found employers will see AI as an excuse to cut their workforce and save money. A survey of senior execs published last year found that 41 percent expect to have a smaller workforce in five years.
An OECD report from late 2024 warned that roles once thought to be at low risk of automation could also be affected by generative AI, including more high-skilled workers
But earlier this month, research from AI firm Anthropic estimated that just four percent of occupations rely heavily on the technology, including software engineering roles and fields related to media, the arts, and design.
The BLS survey reckons that jobs in the legal sector and business and finance will be more at risk.
GenAI can potentially enhance productivity with the ability to “sift through massive amounts of information and synthesize findings,” to reducing the time lawyers and paralegals spend on various tasks related to document review. Employment growth in the legal services industry is expected to rise slower than the average for the economy, at 1.6 percent.
The worst affected in that sector could be claims adjusters, examiners, and investigators, where employment is projected to decline 4.4 percent, while among insurance appraisers for auto damage, it could be as high as 9.2 percent.
Of course, the speed at which AI development moves could render these forecasts outdated by next year. The BLS report states that “projecting future employment involves substantial uncertainty, especially in the case of evaluating the future impacts of a developing technology.”
The org cautions that its projection methods are “not designed to capture extremely rapid technological change” and, so it assumes the overall pace of technological change will be consistent with past events.
Various technologies have had impacts on employment throughout recent history, yet many affected occupations have still seen employment growth, it notes. ®