This post was originally published on this site.
This essay is part of a new report, The United State of Work, released on the fifth anniversary of the start of the Covid pandemic.
The state of work in the United States at the start of 2025 is one of discordant messages and contradictory pressures:
- Workers trust their employers more than other institutions. But that trust has decayed amid worries that business leaders lie and exaggerate.
- The attacks by the Trump administration and conservative critics against diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programmes are meeting limited public opposition. But private employers are quietly persisting in efforts to make workforces diverse and workplaces inclusive, even if they shed the DEI label.
- Workers are excited by the potential of artificial intelligence. But theyâre anxious that AI will destroy their jobs.
- Demographic pressures, including lower birth rates and restricted immigration, will tighten the labor market. But the use of AI threatens to dampen hiring for some roles.
- Businesses arenât hiring aggressively. But theyâre not shedding jobs at a significant pace.
- Workers arenât voluntarily quitting jobs either. But theyâre frustrated with their employers and eager to hop to other companies.
- Some CEOs and the White House are firing workers who donât come to an office five days a week. But the portion of days worked remotely has remained relatively stable.
- Workers who earn higher incomes are optimistic they will be better off in five years. Rank-and-file workers are pessimistic and donât believe that will be likely.
- Income gaps by race have narrowed. But income gaps by class have widened.
- AI has the potential to significantly boost productivity. But companies havenât committed to sharing the rewards for such output gains with workers.
- Federal protections for workers and unions will decrease under the Trump administration. But state-level initiatives will shore up some worker rights.
Todayâs state of affairs does seem more favorable to employers, some of which are smug about throwing off the âyoke of wokeâ and delighted to have permission to fire workers who donât sit in a cubicle from 9am to 5pm every day. The dream of pay equality and proportional representation of women and people of color in executive ranks is deferred. In this climate, Iâm not holding my breath for the spread in the US of four-day workweeks, subsidized child-care, or other human-centric approaches to managing.
But what happens from here is likely more determined by supply and demand in the labor market than any culture war or political contest. When the labor market tightened after the pandemic, employers increased salaries and benefits and invested more in inclusion and organisational culture. If labor is hard to come by â and executives do worry that they wonât be able to hire for certain roles over the coming year â then they seem to take a more human-centric approach.
Limited immigration and a low birth rate will pressure the US labour market, driving up demand for the workers available. People have come off the sidelines to join the formal labor force over the past decade, resulting in a limited supply of workers âon the benchâ to draw on. These signs point to a swinging of the pendulum back in the direction of worker power.
The main unknown is the impact that AI will have on the quantity and quality of jobs. If AI can start performing white-collar roles, as tech companies market AI âagentsâ as capable of doing, then employersâ upper hand will persist. Given the lure of short- term profits and leaner workforces, if AI can be used to reduce headcount itâs too much to expect the US to lead the way in government protections for workers or worker-friendly behavior by companies.
Such short-sightedness is obviously a mistake. Research shows a direct link between human-centric management approaches and sustainable business performance. When workers are engaged, theyâre more productive, thereâs less turnover, and customer service is better. Thatâs not to mention the positive spillover into families, communities, and society more broadly.
Anti-worker and anti-diversity forces are ascendant and emboldened in the US, and the rise of AI threatens to increase employersâ and the wealthiest Americansâ leverage over labor. But the situation is not stable, the forces are contrary, and a human-centric approach surely will retain its place as the smartest path to business success over time.
You can download the full report, The United State of Work, for free.