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Because some roles with relatively easier tasks and that require less critical thinking can be automated with ICTs, the adoption of new technologies impacts the types of workers demanded by firms. According to Dillender and Forsythe (2022), when firms adopt new software at the job-title level, they then increase the skills required of job applicants, not only in terms of knowledge about the new technologies, but also in terms of skills related to high-skill white-collar tasks. Dillender and Forsythe’s database comprises more than 8 million job ads for the years 2007 and 2010–2016, with detailed information on occupation, job location, desired education and experience, and tasks required of the job. They show that as firms require more technological use in their job ads, they also increase the requirements for education and experience. In fact, they show that one additional technology requirement listed in a job ad is associated with an increase in the likelihood that a job will require a college degree by 3.9 percentage points (using a panel regression with commuting zone fixed effects). Similarly, one additional technology requirement listed in a job ad is associated with a 4.2 percentage point increase in the likelihood that the ad requires a certain minimum experience level and is not an entry-level position.
Along with impacts on the types of workers demanded by firms, the introduction of new technologies also impacts the types of tasks performed by workers in clerical occupations. Dillender and Forsythe (2022) show evidence of upskilling; that is, the use of new technologies at the occupation level increases the likelihood that these occupations require high-skill tasks such as legal, accounting, or finance expertise. In other words, as new technologies are introduced and higher-skill workers are hired to fill clerical positions, firms are more likely to delegate to these roles tasks that were previously performed by managerial and professional personnel. Moreover, these upskilled positions are nonroutine cognitive tasks and thus are less likely to be automated.
Importance of Changing Requirements
That the share of clerical workers has declined to a greater degree in expensive MSAs and that the tasks and education attainment of workers filling these occupations in expensive MSAs has changed significantly over time implies that further declines in ICT prices may have different impacts across geographies. The quality-adjusted price of software declined by a total of 54 percent from December 2007 to August 2024; within that time, between December 2015 and August 2024, it declined 35 percent. The decline in ICT prices may trigger additional investment in technologies by establishments for whom this may not have been a viable solution previously; in turn, this investment may induce a further decline in the share of clerical jobs in the employed labor force, with some jobs having been replaced more easily by automation. That said, this decline may affect inexpensive or smaller MSAs disproportionately, not only because they now employ a larger share of workers in clerical jobs, but also because these workers are particularly at risk of being displaced by automation given that they perform routine cognitive tasks. In contrast, because of upskilling, clerical workers in expensive or larger MSAs perform tasks that are less likely to be automated, reducing their displacement risk.
Furthermore, there are signs that artificial intelligence and large language models may negatively affect clerical workers’ employment. According to Gmyrek et al. (2023), clerical workers are highly exposed to the employment effects of AI technology, with 24 percent of traditional clerical tasks being highly exposed to replacement by AI and an additional 58 percent having medium-level exposure. These numbers are in contrast to those for other broad occupational groups, in which the authors found a small replacement risk such that the technology is likely to be used for augmentation rather than replacement, automating some tasks within an occupation while leaving workers time for other duties. Similarly, in a recent study, Aghion et al. (2024) show a negative impact on clerical work with the adoption of AI technologies by 321 French firms from 2019 through 2020. This is in contrast with an overall increase in employment by the adopting firms, at which there was no negative impact to other jobs in these same firms. Consequently, any policies that may incentivize firms to adopt these technologies are likely to affect clerical workers disproportionately, particularly in smaller MSAs, where they tend to perform more traditional routine tasks.
Conclusion
The distribution of occupations and the types of workers and what they do in a given occupation vary across geographies. These differences are important to keep in mind when evaluating how technology adoption may unevenly affect workers and MSAs. The continued decline in ICT costs and the advancement of new AI technologies may have a particularly negative impact on clerical workers in smaller MSAs, since in these areas a larger share of the employed labor force remains in clerical jobs that perform more traditional clerical tasks.