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Experts who study or work with AI are much more positive and optimistic about how the technology will improve jobs and the economy compared with members of the general public, according to a new report from Pew Research Center. But many acknowledge the technology will lead to some job loss in the future.
Overall, a majority, 56%, of AI experts say the technology will have a positive impact on the U.S. in the next 20 years, compared with just 17% of U.S. adults. Experts overwhelmingly believe AI will have a positive impact on how people do their jobs in the next 20 years, and are more likely to believe it will boost the overall economy in that timeframe.
That’s based on a survey of over 1,000 AI experts who conduct research or work in the field, and a separate survey of over 5,400 U.S. adults.
Experts are generally less concerned than average workers that AI will lead to fewer jobs overall but acknowledge that certain occupations are more likely to be impacted.
When considering where AI is likely to lead to fewer jobs, experts said some roles most at risk in the next 20 years include:
- Cashiers (73% of experts agree)
- Truck drivers (62%)
- Journalists (60%)
- Factory workers (60%)
- Software engineers (50%)
Workers tend to agree with experts about at-risk jobs, except when it comes to truckers: just 33% of the general public believe AI will lead to fewer truck drivers in the future.
Experts surveyed in the report said truck driving jobs are primed for disruption by AI as driverless vehicle technology improves, says Jeff Gottfried, Pew’s associate director of research.
Expert and public concerns must be considered in developing AI
The research underscores years of studies showing the American public’s concerns that AI will take their jobs and could lead to a loss of human connection, Gottfried tells CNBC Make It.
Despite some big differences, experts and the public agree on some things about AI, including that it could do the most good in medical care; that they’re skeptical it will have a positive impact on accurate news and election coverage; and that they’d like more control over how AI is used in their lives. Neither camp is confident the government will regulate AI effectively, or that U.S. companies will develop and use AI responsibly.
“It’s really important that both of these sets of views are in the room” to understand the key concerns among experts and the public regarding how AI is developed and integrated into certain jobs and throughout the economy, Gottfried says.
“We’re not placing a value judgment on which population is correct,” he adds. Instead, he and his fellow researchers hope to uncover, “What are the experiences of these two groups that are really important to the conversation of AI and its risks, benefits and future?”
Women who work in AI are more skeptical of its benefits than men
Even experts have differing viewpoints within their own camp.
For example, experts who work at colleges and universities are more skeptical that companies are developing and using AI responsibly, compared with experts who work at private firms.
Women tend to be more skeptical of AI than men, and the gender gap is even more pronounced among experts who work with the technology.
Among the experts surveyed, men (63%) are nearly twice as likely as women (36%) to say AI’s impact on the U.S. will be at least somewhat positive; men are also more likely than women to say they’re more excited than concerned about AI (53% vs. 30%) or think AI will personally benefit them (81% vs. 64%).
“That really stood out to us,” Gottfried says. “We do see some of these wide differences did occur within the population closest to the AI technology itself, whether they study or work with it. Our study wasn’t really designed to understand why women’s views differ from men but this is consistent with the findings” among the gender differences among the general public.
Previous research indicates that many roles typically filled by women, including administrative and customer service roles, are being automated away by new technology. Meanwhile, a gender gap where women are underrepresented in AI jobs could have an impact in how the technology is developed.
“It is absolutely crucial that those people who create AI are representative of the population as a whole,” Kay Firth-Butterfield, the World Economic Forum’s head of artificial intelligence and machine learning said in 2018.
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