00:00 Speaker A
AI research and development would improve at more than double the rate that it was improving already. They estimated that this would come around the start of 2027. Turns out, it’s already here. An independent group of researchers were given access to Anthropic’s internal models over the last couple of months and they determined pretty concretely that they’d already achieved that 2X improvement.
00:22 Speaker A
What this means, by the way, is that AI model research was already limited and constrained by the number of human experts that were available.
00:32 Speaker A
Remember, all these researchers are getting hired for hundreds of millions of dollars in compensation. Now they have an AI model that is competent of automating 80% of that, which helped them achieve this 2X five months earlier. That’s prediction number one.
00:47 Speaker A
Prediction number two means that an AI automated researcher, which is an AI model that is competent enough to just build the next best version of itself, is now going to arrive 19 months earlier.
01:00 Speaker A
They expected this to happen around 2029. Now it’s going to happen by May of next year.
01:06 Speaker A
And the third most scary prediction is an AI that is competent enough to replace any human expert across any field. So think of any job that’s out there that’s relying on software and maybe some physical labor, will be able to get replaced. Now, the focus of this prediction is on white collar work specifically. So software-based tasks, because of course, the physical constraints are limited to how fast robotics advance.
01:28 Speaker A
But the idea here is they have a 35 to 65% chance estimate that this happens by the end of next year, certainly in 2028.
01:38 Speaker A
So just to put that into perspective, we’re looking at like maybe a year and a half left before we have AI models that are smarter than the smartest human in the world and they’re going to be readily available and cheap to access by almost anyone or anything.
01:54 Speaker A
AI agents and AI models just running 24/7 doing a lot of the work and jobs that you and I do today.
02:00 Speaker A
And listen, the evidence for this has sort of been emerging in small ways for publicly accessible models. I for one can say that a lot of the research, a lot of the development, the editing, the processes that I spend so much time committing to every single day, every single month, the long-term tasks are now being automated by a lot of the new models.
02:22 Speaker A
They are getting smarter, more intuitive, they’re built up on a lot of my personal context. These models are now very good, way better than a human, way faster than a human at using an actual computer, and they can run 24/7 for as much as 20 bucks a month.
02:37 Speaker A
So the idea here of having an automated worker isn’t too far off.
02:41 Speaker A
And indeed, we’re seeing this with some of the lead flagship products from the AI labs. If you look at Elon Musk releasing Grockbot from SpaceX, if you’re looking at Open Air releasing dots, these AI agents are very competent at automating a lot of work tools, and they can get access to these tools like Slack, Google Mail, like G-Drive, like Sheets. You saw Anthropic release a few days ago their competitor to Microsoft Office.
03:04 Speaker A
The idea here is AI is getting competent enough to do a lot of software-based tasks.