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According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of programmers now is comparable to when the arcade game “Pac-Man” debuted in May 1980 and before the Internet became mainstream.
Programming jobs, which peaked at over 700,000 during the early 2000s dot-com boom, have been declining ever since. In the past year the industry has seen a 27.5% drop coinciding with the rise of OpenAI’s ChatGPT.
Unlike software developers, who oversee broader project aspects, programmers primarily write code—a role considered more labor-intensive. As of 2023, their average salary stood at $99,700, significantly lower than the $132,270 earned by software developers. The bureau forecasts 17% growth in software development jobs between 2023 and 2033 but a 10% decline in programming jobs.
Mark Muro, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center for Technology Innovation, told The Washington Post newspaper that the surge in AI-driven automation has had a direct impact on programming job losses.
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A person working on his laptop. Photo from Pexels |
Garry Tan, CEO of U.S. startup accelerator and venture capital firm Y Combinator, told TV channel CNBC that AI is reshaping the industry through “vibe coding,” an approach where developers prioritize functionality over structured coding practices.
“You can just talk to the large language models and they will code entire apps.” Small teams could now achieve unprecedented revenues with minimal staff, he said. “People are getting from a million to 10 million dollars a year in revenues with under 10 people, and that has really never happened before in early-stage venture.”
With AI handling bulk coding tasks, many startups no longer need large development teams. What once required 50 to 100 engineers could now be done by 10, Tan said, pointing to tools like Cursor and Windsurf, which enable skilled developers to produce the work of multiple engineers in a single day.
Nevertheless, AI-assisted programming has its drawbacks. In a recent Lightcone Podcast episode, Tan warned that debugging AI-generated code can be extremely difficult.
Independent software developer Simon Willison, speaking to Ars Technica, acknowledged that vibe coding is “a fun way to try out an idea and prove if it can work,” but cautioned that understanding the generated code is crucial as AI often makes errors or misinterpretations.
Developer Ben South echoed this sentiment on X, saying: “Vibe coding is all fun and games until you have to vibe debug.”
Several companies have already adapted their workforce strategies in response to AI advancements.
Klarna, a buy-now-pay-later service, froze hiring after partnering with OpenAI to develop an AI chatbot capable of handling the workload of 700 full-time agents, according to Forbes. In January, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg also acknowledged AI’s growing role in coding, saying it could replace mid-level engineers in doing routine programming tasks.
While many fear AI-driven job losses, some industry leaders view automation as a productivity boost rather than a threat. IBM CEO Arvind Krishna told TechCrunch that AI would enhance programmer efficiency rather than replace jobs entirely.
“If you can do 30% more code with the same number of people, are you going to get more code written or less?” he said.
“History has shown that the most productive company gains market share, and then you can produce more products, which lets you get more market share.”