ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE COULD displace around one in every 14 jobs in Ireland in the coming years, with middle and higher-income households most exposed, according to new research.
A report from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) examining how AI adoption may affect employment, wages and income distribution has found that job losses are likely to outweigh gains for many households (meaning an average decline in household disposable income as a result of widespread AI adoption).
In its central scenario, the ESRI estimated that 7% of current jobs could be lost in the short to medium term.
Unlike previous waves of technological change, the study found that AI is more likely to affect higher-paid and more highly educated workers, as many of their roles involve tasks that can be automated.
The report states that “those most likely to experience this disruption are found in higher income households”, with a larger share of workers in these groups transitioning into unemployment.
While workers who remain employed are expected to benefit from productivity gains, the ESRI claims that these increases are limited.
It finds that wage gains are “modest but broadly shared”, and are “not large enough to counterbalance the average fall in income due to job displacement”.
Which jobs are most exposed?
The report also breaks down how different occupations could be affected, showing significant variation across sectors.
Clerical roles are among the most exposed, with job losses projected at 18% for general and keyboard clerks (an admin job responsible for inputting data, typing documents, and managing records using computers), alongside 15.8% for numerical and material recording clerks and 14.6% for customer service clerks.
Technology and professional roles are also heavily impacted. The ESRI estimated potential losses of 13.7% for ICT professionals, 11.4% for business and administration professionals, and 10.6% for ICT technicians.
By contrast, some sectors are far less exposed.
Health professionals show no projected job loss, while roles in construction and manual trades are among the least affected, including 0.6% for building trades workers and 2% for electrical trades.
Sales and service roles fall somewhere in the middle, with estimated losses of 9% for sales workers and 6.8% for personal services workers.
Income losses and inequality
The report also found an overall decline in household disposable income.
Losses are largest among middle- and higher-income households, where job displacement has a greater impact.
Lower-income households are also affected, but to a lesser extent due to the role of the tax and welfare system.
Despite higher earners seeing bigger average losses, the ESRI said that inequality is still likely to rise.
It added that income inequality “rises moderately in every scenario we examine”, driven by a combination of job losses and gains in wages and capital income.
Impact on public finances
The ESRI warned that the effects on the public finances could be significant.
If job losses are limited and productivity gains are realised, AI could boost tax revenues. However, if displacement is more substantial, falling tax receipts and higher welfare spending could put pressure on the Exchequer.
The report also highlighted the importance of preparing for these changes through policy.
It said that “AI has the potential to increase productivity and living standards, but only if the workforce is equipped with the skills needed” to adapt.
Investment in retraining, lifelong learning and support for workers transitioning into new roles will be key, particularly for older workers and those with fewer qualifications.
The ESRI also pointed to longer-term risks for Ireland’s tax base, warning that a shift from labour income towards capital income could make current taxation models harder to sustain.