Approximately 7 percent of the U.S. workforce — 11 million employees — may need to switch occupations within the next decade, according to a report from McKinsey Global Institute published on Sept. 29.
Boosted by the AI boom, the U.S. economy could create over 40 million new jobs in the next decade, the report found, but widespread adoption of AI and other automation technologies could also reduce demand for existing jobs by 21%, equivalent to 36 million jobs’ worth of labor, by 2035.
Roughly 25 million workers will be able to stay in their current occupations, although the nature of their jobs may change, while the remaining 11 million will need to pivot into other fields.
“The good news is that the demand is going to be higher than the decline,” says Tanguy Catlin, director of the McKinsey Global Institute.
But for workers whose jobs are affected by automation adoption, which the report defines as “the share of current work hours potentially automated or meaningfully augmented” by technology, the path ahead could be complicated, Catlin says.
According to the report, these are the top 10 jobs that will be most affected by automation adoption, based on the number of full-time employees, the estimated percentage of current work hours that will be affected, and the estimated reduction in labor demand due to automation.
1. Office and administrative support
Number of full-time employees: 18 million
Percentage of work hours affected: 81%
Reduced labor demand due to automation: 38%
2. Agriculture, fishing and forestry
Number of full-time employees: 400,000
Percentage of work hours affected: 76%
Reduced labor demand due to automation: 43%
3. Technology and analytics
Number of full-time employees: 5.2 million
Percentage of work hours affected: 70%
Reduced labor demand due to automation: 22%
4. Manufacturing and production
Number of full-time employees: 8.5 million
Percentage of work hours affected: 68%
Reduced labor demand due to automation: 25%
5. Retail and sales
Number of full-time employees: 13.3 million
Percentage of work hours affected: 67%
Reduced labor demand due to automation: 27%
6. Business and finance
Number of full-time employees: 10.5 million
Percentage of work hours affected: 62%
Reduced labor demand due to automation: 18%
7. Food service
Number of full-time employees: 13.7 million
Percentage of work hours affected: 60%
Reduced labor demand due to automation: 31%
8. Arts, media and entertainment
Number of full-time employees: 1.9 million
Percentage of work hours affected: 58%
Reduced labor demand due to automation: 13%
9. Transportation and logistics
Number of full-time employees: 13.8
Percentage of work hours affected: 55%
Reduced labor demand due to automation: 30%
10. Installation and repair
Number of full-time employees: 6.1 million
Percentage of work hours affected: 54%
Reduced labor demand due to automation: 15%
Some jobs will be ‘reinvented’
According to Catlin, higher levels of automation adoption don’t always translate to less demand for workers. Some jobs are more likely to be “reinvented” or augmented by AI adoption, rather than replaced, he says.
For example, automation could affect 47% of work hours in the legal field, but the projected loss of labor demand is only 18%.
Lawyers “historically used to spend a lot of time doing research,” Catlin says, but today, AI can perform a lot of that research, so lawyers will spend more time on tasks that require human judgment.
“Your job role or title doesn’t change, but how you spend your time is changing massively,” he says.
With this data, Catlin says that it’s important to note that there is a difference between how much work is “theoretically automatable” versus “what is actually going to be automated” within organizations: according to the report, “Technology determines what is possible, but managerial choices determine how quickly those possibilities become reality.”
As such, the number of workers who will need to switch occupations could range between 6 and 16 million, with 11 million as the base estimate.
Navigating the transition
For the 11 million displaced workers, migrating into entirely new jobs “will not necessarily be easy,” Catlin says.
One in seven will have a “direct” pathway into new jobs in expanding fields, meaning that they can find roles that involve similar skills, require easy-to-acquire credentials and offer equal or better pay than their previous job.
But almost 45% could face an “unpaved” pathway, which means that finding a new job could require them to move geographically, significantly reskill or acquire new credentials — often for lower pay than their original roles.
“To get those credentials may require an investment of time and an investment of money, and that will be source of friction” for workers, Catlin says.
Moreover, for 11 million workers to land in new roles within the next decade, about 770,000 workers would need to switch occupational groups each year, a rate of change that is roughly 3.6 times the historical average.
It’s “feasible” for this transition to happen, Catlin says, but navigating it successfully will require a “system-level response” in which employers and the government invest in helping workers re-skill. Employees aren’t “able to address those gaps on their own,” he says.
In the meantime, Catlin advises workers to focus on developing skills like problem-solving, interpersonal communication, collaboration, critical thinking, curiosity and willingness to learn.
Those skills will “allow you to get access to better jobs” and “allow you to have resilience as the world continues to change,” he says.
“The pace of change will never be as slow as today,” he continues. “Therefore, we need to have a workforce that embraces adaptability, continuous improvement and continuous learning.”