Ugly omens abound — war, inflation, AI job fears, data center fights — but Rob Curley says he’s got a better indicator of where the economy is headed.
“I measure things based on customer activity. And I don’t see a recession coming,” said Curley, head since 2022 of Marlton-based TD Bank’s metro Philadelphia region and neighboring markets, plus the Washington, D.C., region since last fall.
Canadian-owned TD is one of the four big banks that together hold about half the Philadelphia region’s customer deposits. Like rivals Wells Fargo, Citizens and PNC, TD still operates more than 100 branches in the region. Also like the others, it has closed more than 20% of its offices since 2015, as customers move to digital services.
Chase Bank is building a similar-sized network, in some cases buying old sites from rivals like TD.
In a recent interview, Curley said customers have made him less worried than he was last year.
This interview has been edited for clarity and brevity.
How do you figure things are looking up?
A year ago there was a lot of concern around tariffs. Interest rates were rising; cap rates on real estate were rising. There was a slowdown in lending activity and business expansion.
That completely turned around in this first part of 2026. Small business and middle-market loans are up.
People have come to the realization that interest rates are not going to where they were during the pandemic. They went up [in the first month of] the Iran crisis, then back down. [Profits were falling] for office space and multifamily apartment buildings, but they have stabilized, and that has brought builders back. Construction activity is up significantly from a year ago.
Everybody is talking about AI. It’s in the news every day. We talk about it all the time from the lens that it’s going to reduce the workforce and replace people.
But our small-business customers tell us they will increase their workforce with AI — and not replace people. It’s an interesting counter to the message.
We did a Financial Preparedness Survey of 1,000 small businesses, each with at least 10 employees, revenues from $100,000 to several million dollars a year. Many of them told us they are looking to increase their workforce because they don’t have the expertise to use AI effectively. They are hiring people who do have that expertise and could tailor it.
Who’s hiring, and who isn’t?
In Southeastern Pennsylvania the economy is stable. [Even with hospital and college closings] health and school employment has done well.
We have seen a downturn for manufacturing impacted by tariffs. Nobody understands the long-term impact yet.
Other manufacturing, the fabricated-metals subsector, which is big in Pennsylvania, is doing well. Food manufacturing, which is big in Pennsylvania, is doing well. We are seeing major pharma investments like Eli Lilly’s $3.5 billion project in the Lehigh Valley.
The employment growth rate has slowed recently but is still above the U.S. average. Trade, transportation, and utilities are driving that strong employment rate in Southeastern Pennsylvania.
Housing seems to be stabilized. Lots of regions are showing very large increases in property values because of the lack of supply. This area does not seem to have the same level of supply needs other regions are having.
You joined TD after TD bought Commerce Bank in 2008. Commerce built hundreds of branches; you guys closed dozens. Where is banking headed?
There are so many nontraditional financial services. Banks are shifting to an advice model for consumers and small-business owners. We [hired more] business bankers covering three to six [branches] each to speak to and manage customer relationships at businesses with under $1 million in yearly revenue. We are looking for people who can have a sophisticated conversation with owners, who know the difference between consumer banking and commercial banking. It’s expensive but a great way to build relationships with growing companies.
When owners want access to capital and a business loan, they can’t do that with a credit model alone. Our survey shows 86% of businesses in the Delaware Valley have less than six months’ capital for operating expenses. Nationally, it’s 76%. Businesses with under $5 million in sales need advice more than anyone. You need advice for a car loan, a credit card, a mortgage, but even more for a business loan.
Owners are heads of HR, CEOs, and their own best salespeople; they wear too many hats. They may not know how to do a business plan. We educate them to manage their business appropriately.