Last week, Anthropic published its prediction of what the economic impact of AI on the U.S. economy is going to be for the next few years. The company thinks the U.S. can reach a $44.4 trillion GDP or higher by 2030, provided, of course, it conveniently adopts AI at a rapid pace. Having said that, Anthropic admits “the challenge is making sure that the gains are broadly shared.”
The interactive post has a simulator where readers can plug in their estimates on key factors and get their own future predictions, within the firm’s analysis and perspective. That’s definitely interesting to play around with, but perhaps the most relevant piece of information is the lens through which Anthropic views the world.
Anthropic establishes its reasoning by first placing tasks in broad categories and using a nurse’s workday as an example. They removed tasks, including those that will disappear naturally as technology progresses, like collecting data on paper or physically visiting the patient to collect basic vitals — neither happens anymore as remote monitoring becomes commonplace. However, some new tasks are added, like keeping an eye on dashboards for the aforementioned AI-powered monitoring.
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Then, there are naturally the tasks that a bot can’t perform, like bathing a patient. Augmented tasks include those that require a human, but can be made more efficient with AI: helping with triage, planning schedules, and assisting with dashboard data. Some tasks may be fully automated, like keeping supply closets full or scheduling follow-up patient visits. Finally, AI usage can introduce some tasks of its own, like reviewing automated triaging or double-checking dashboard alerts — perhaps even impromptu data recovery.
The company’s predictions broadly hinge on how ubiquitous AI usage becomes, and therefore, the number of tasks transitioning into fully or partially automated. Unsurprisingly, Anthropic believes that the more entrenched AI gets, the more value the country creates, though at greater risk — and on an exponential scale, no less
Three models are presented, from “modest” economical impact to “extreme.” The modest model establishes a 1.6% GDP rise to $34.1 trillion, an impact Anthropic says is in line with that of new technologies like the internet, and crucially, doesn’t imply tectonic shifts to unemployment rates or wages.
For the “substantial impact” scenario, although AI is predicted to be able to do half of “knowledge work,” mostly without intervention, adoption remains limited. This scenario foresees twice the normal economic growth, this time +8.3% to $36.3 trillion.
This future marks the inflection point at which Anthropic believes knowledge workers see their wages remain steady instead of growing, though it’s not clear if the firm accounts for inflation. Additionally, the firm states that “knowledge workers may see a lot of automation and displacement […] coders and call service center agents may have to switch to jobs like electrician and nurse”, a statement some might argue is already true. In that sense, Anthropic expects other workers to start seeing more cash.
The eyebrow-raising prediction for both the above scenarios, though, is that Anthropic expects unemployment to “stay within ranges history has seen before,” an odd statement given modern U.S. history contains events like the Great Depression. The company does note that it expects job churn to increase, but also that while “this process can be painful, [it] works relatively well from a macroeconomic perspective.” Average wages are expected to rise across all three scenarios, though the increase is expected to go towards workers outside of knowledge areas.
In the “extreme” scenario, Anthropic expects significant changes. Should AI be super-widely adopted, the GDP can increase by 32.4%, corresponding to a cool $44.4 trillion, a “profound economic transformation.” This is the point at which the firm expects that AI becomes more productive than humans for most knowledge work, and does so with near-autonomy. Equally worryingly, it’s expected that there will be “essentially no” new knowledge tasks created.
Anthropic notes that to reach this kind of stage, the country would “likely require” recursively self-improving AI (using the AI to make better AI). There’s a significant catch, however, as though the U.S. would be “far richer than [it’s] ever been,” knowledge workers would be the hardest hit with a 10% wage drop, plus overall unemployment would climb “beyond typical recessionary levels.” Manual labor would be prized, though, given that “as AI increases productivity within knowledge work, the demand for manual work that benefits from that productivity will increase.”
Scenarios aside, the one big question is: How would all that GDP money land in people’s pockets? Anthropic admits this problem is a “challenge” and offers little solution for it. Such a high amount of future AI penetration might prove a hard sell, considering wealth inequality in the U.S. already sits at its highest level for the last few decades and is trending in that direction in most developed nations. Others might argue with Anthropic’s assessment that unemployment levels would remain somewhat in the less extreme scenarios, seeing as job cuts are rampant across many sectors and have hit technology-related fields the hardest.
To its credit, Anthropic clearly highlights part of the wealth-inequality issue. The company admits that more AI automation might skew the current 60/40% balance between labor and capital, respectively, strongly tilting the scale in favor of capital ownership and increasing inequality. Many argue that’s already happening today. There’s also the matter that the prediction appears to assume little competition from other countries, nor does it offer insight as to what would happen to “AI-less” nations.
The interactive blog post and its simulator are worth a good read and fiddling with, regardless. Anthropic published the technical details on the mathematical model used in a separate article and published its Economic Policy Framework last June.